The Prediction Wiki
(Password = Richard Harrah's nickname)
(See also the Wager Wiki, 2008 Election, Long Bets)
- "Accurate?" is Y/N, depending on whether the prediction turned out to be correct or not
- "Prediction Date" is the date on which the prediction was made or entered into the wiki.
- "Judgement Date" is the date by which we should be able to clearly determine if the prediction was accurate or not
- "Confidence" is the number from 1% to 100% quantifying your impression of the likeliness of the prediction. E.g. 45% indicates you think it's more likely that it will *not* happen (but you may still want to list it as a "prediction" because it is much more farfetched in most people's minds or because it is the *most* likely of a large set of possibilities, such as predicting the World Series winner at the start of the season).
- "Prediction" should describe the prediction in terms that should leave no ambiguity over whether the prediction was accurate or not.
| Accurate? | Prediction Date | Judgement Date | Predictor | Confidence | Prediction |
| - | 6/10/2008 | 6/10/2158 | Ray | ?% | Someone alive today will live to be 150 |
| - | 6/10/2008 | 1/1/2050 | Ray | ?% | America will break into separate countries by 2050 |
| - | 6/10/2008 | 1/1/2025 | Ray | ?% | By 2025, a surface nuclear detonation will occur as an overt act of aggression, against a political, ideological or geographical populace. |
| - | 1/16/2008 | 1/16/2018 | Pete | 55% | Pastor Ken Hutchinson will be outed in scandalous revelations of secret gay sex and other kinky activities. |
| N | 9/11/2007 | 11/5/2008 | Pete | 25% | Hillary over Fred for Prez |
| - | 9/11/2007 | 1/1/2080 | Pete | 1% | The trend of bigots to hate smaller and smaller and less and less powerful people (e.g. from blacks to gays, etc.) will reach its logical conclusion in the last generation of this century with bigots all hating one guy. |
| - | 9/11/2007 | 2032 | Pete | 90% | Despite billions of taxpayer dollars poured into investigations of alternative medicine by the federal govt. and hundreds of billions spent on them by the private sector, no new(1) major treatments or modalities outside of one or two possible herbal treatments, will ever be ultimately confirmed under testing of mainstream science rigor.(2) AltComments |
| - | 9/11/2007 | 2027 | Pete | 70% | In the next 20 years, as huge bioengineering advances increase the public's knowledge of DNA and genetics (and hence the overwhelming genetic evidence of evolution), belief in Creationism will drop from 55% of Americans in 2006(3) to under 25% of Americans |
| Y | 9/11/2007 | 1/1/2008 | Pete | 100% | Okay this is a bit late, but contrary to the expectations of 25% of Americans and 46% of white evangelicals(4), Jesus will *not* return to earth in 2007. |
| - | 9/11/2007 | 1/1/2027 | Pete | 85% | Of all the hundreds of beliefs clearly denounced in the leading skeptic literature, not a single one will turn out to be scientifically validated in the next 20 years SkepticComment |
| - | 9/12/2007 | 1/1/2050 | Ray | 20% | The United States will cease to exist as a cohesive political unit, but will break into smaller, regional confederacies, possibly governed with a loose federal structure that presides over all of North America. |
| - | 9/12/2007 | 1/1/2015 | Ray | 40% | Web 3.0 will principally consist of a conflation of commercial web technologies and commerce with gaming UI's and interoperability. Games like "Second Life" will become exemplars for the sort of transactional experience everyone will expect from web interactions, whether it's a dating site, a bidding site, a traditional e-tailer or what have you. |
| - | 9/12/2007 | 1/1/2012 | Ray | 30% | Keith Olbermann is appearing on Sunday Night Football as a precursor for being named as the evening news anchor in the next 5 years. |
| - | 9/12/2007 | 1/1/2015 | Ray | 60% | Cell phones will cease to exist, replaced instead by fully Wi-Fi enabled tiny computers, capable of communicating with anyone over the web, as well as conducting most if not all of our current computing needs ( CellComments ) |
| - | 9/12/2007 | 2025 | Ray | 90% | Cloning of human beings, either in part (e.g., for the purpose of creating a new kidney, heart, limb) or in whole (e.g. as a surrogate child), will happen either as an institutionally recognized practice, or as a readily available black-market service |
| - | 9/12/2007 | 2020 | Ray | 50% | A nuclear weapon will be detonated as an act of aggression on U.S. soil |
| - | 10/30/2002 | 2020 | Ray | 40% | Keanu Reeves, despite his wooden acting style, will ultimately be remembered for a unique acting demeanor, and will become a successful movie director. In this way, his career arc will resemble Clint Eastwood's. |
| - | - | - | - | -% | - |
Footnotes
1. I.e. no "alternative" treatment which is not already accepted by virtually all mainstream practicioners, e.g. nutrition
2. I.e. under tests of a quality roughly comparable to that required to approve a new drug or to consider something well established in mainstream science
3. For 2006 results, vide http://www.religioustolerance.org/ev_publi.htm
4. http://www.christianpost.com/article/20070103/24761.htm
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